Ok, it’s put up or shut up time.

Here are my predictions as to who is going home with a statue on Sunday night.

In addition to my predictions, I’m also going to tell you who YOU predicted will win.  (I’ve sorted through all of the entries to my Tony Pool, and I’m going to tell you who got the majority of votes.)

And, as a special bonus this year, I’ve enlisted some Producing Peers of mine to offer their predictions as well.  Producers Hal Luftig (Catch Me If You Can, Thoroughly Modern Millie, Movin’ Out) and the 2010 Producers of the Year Randy Adams and Sue Frost (Memphis) have offered their thoughts on what will win in a few categories (and remember, they are all voters).  Let’s see if they agree with me.

And let’s see if you agree with us.

Here we go!

BEST PLAY

NOMINEES:  Good People, Jerusaleum, The Motherf**ker with the Hat, War Horse

There’s some scuttle on the street that this will go to Good People because it’s a good play by an American author, and a few folks are calling War Horse an example of style over substance.

But I think the overall experience of War Horse will overpower Good People.  In fact, if “Joey” were running the Preakness this year, I’d put $1000 on him to win.

Hal Luftig agrees.  In his own words, “War Horse will win best play because a dying horse, especially when it’s a puppet, is hard to beat!”

And Randy says, “This was a very tough category because all are excellent plays.  I think War Horse will win because of the epic size and sheer theatricality of the production.

MY PREDICTION:  War Horse

YOUR PREDICTION:  War Horse

 

BEST MUSICAL

NOMINEES:  The Book of Mormon, Catch Me If You Can, The Scottsboro Boys, Sister Act

No contest.  But boy oh boy would I have loved to have seen what came in second!  If only, like the Preakness, we had a ‘place’ and a ‘show’ as well as a ‘win’.

Randy Adams says, “Book of Mormon will win.  It is an amazing show with a big old heart at the center of it. It is incredibly well put together with clever writing and great staging and its original!

MY PREDICTION:  The Book of Mormon

YOUR PREDICTION:  The Book of Mormon

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL

NOMINEES:  Alex Timbers (Bloody, Bloody, Andrew Jackson), Trey Parker, Robert Lopez and Matt Stone (The Book of Mormon), David Thompson (The Scottsboro Boys), Chris Steinkellner, Bill Steinkellner and Douglas Carter Beane, Sister Act.

While I think Douglas Carter Beane deserves some recognition for his work on the trans-atlantic version of Sister Act, wrap this one up and give it to the Mormon boys.

MY PREDICTION:  Trey Parker, Robert Lopez and Matt Stone (The Book of Mormon)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Trey Parker, Robert Lopez and Matt Stone (The Book of Mormon)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE OF A MUSICAL

Nominees:  The Book of Mormon (Trey Parker, Robert Lopez and Matt Stone), The Scottsboro Boys (John Kander and Fred Ebb), Sister Act (Alan Menken and Glenn Slater), Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown

The Scottsboro Boys will get a few sentimental (but deserved) votes because of the careers of Kander and the late Fred Ebb, but The Mormons will take this one too.

Oh, and has anyone found the credits to BOM interesting?  All three authors split all three credits.  Rare that you can find artists willing to do that these days, and a sign that maybe this collaboration was made in heaven . . . or on XXXX if you’re a Mormon.

MY PREDICTION:  Trey Parker, Robert Lopez and Matt Stone (The Book of Mormon)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Trey Parker, Robert Lopez and Matt Stone (The Book of Mormon)

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY

Nominees:  Arcadia, The Importance of Being Earnest, The Merchant of Venice, The Normal Heart

Beware the ides of May.  That’s what Shakespeare would have written if he had been talking about how quickly things can change in the Tony race when shows open late in the season.

Back in cold, dark January, I would have called this one for The Merchant of Venice.  And then The Normal Heart happened.  The industry players that I talk to tell me that Heart seems richer than it was, is incredibly acted, and then they all bring up the subject matter.  AIDS ravaged the entertainment industry, and voters will want the message of The Normal Heart to be rewarded for its bravery.

And Randy Adams agrees:  “This was a stunning, heartbreaking revival done by an incredible cast.”

MY PREDICTION:  The Normal Heart

YOUR PREDICTION:  The Normal Heart

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

Nominees:  Anything Goes, How To Succeed In Business Without Really Trying

I’ve heard that Anything Goes has been building up some steam in this category, but I’m going the other way.  Here’s why.  I don’t care who you talk to, they all agree that Daniel Radcliffe was robbed of a nomination, and maybe even of a win.  Voters still want to reward him somehow.  And giving the Tony to H2S could be there way of doing so.

Randy Adams disagrees with me, saying, “Anything Goes will win.  The work of Kathleen Marshall and Sutton Foster shot this to the top for me.”

MY PREDICTION:  How To Succeed In Business Without Really Trying

YOUR PREDICTION:  Anything Goes

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY

Nominees:  Brian Bedford (Importance of . . . ), Bobby Cannavale (The MF with the Hat), Joe Mantello (Normal Heart), Al Pacino (Merchant of Venice), Mary Rylance (Jersualeum)

Tough category.  Really competitive category.  All of them are Tony-worthy.  Who will win is a tough question.  But a tougher question is . . . if Rylance wins, how will he top his previous speech?

MY PREDICTION:  Actor/Director Joe Mantello (The Normal Heart), or as I call him, The MF who wears many hats and looks good in all of them.

YOUR PREDICTION: Mark Rylance (Jerusalem)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY

Nominees:  Nina Arianda (Born Yesterday), Frances McDormand (Good People), Lily Rabe (The Merchant of Venice), Vanessa Redgrave (Driving Miss Daisy), Hannah Yelland (Brief Encounter)

A three-way race, if you ask me, or what I call, a menage-a-Tony.  It’s between Arianda, McDormand and Rabe.  And I’m going to say voters went with the one that surprised the the most.

MY PREDICTION:  Nina Arianda (Born Yesterday)

YOUR PREDICTION: Frances McDormand (Good People)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees:  Norbert Butz (Catch Me If You Can), Josh Gad (The Book of Mormon), Joshua Henry (The Scottsboro Boys), Andrew Rannells (Book of Mormon), Tony Sheldon (Priscilla Queen of the Desert)

This category is the best chance we have for an upset, but at the end of the day, the veteran wins the day, and deservedly so.

As Hal Luftig says, “Norbert Leo Butz will win Best Actor in Catch Me If You Can because he should! (full disclosure: I produced the show)”

MY PREDICTION:  Daniel Radcliffe.  Oops.  Sorry.  I forgot.  I mean, Norbert Leo Butz.

YOUR PREDICTION:  Norbert Leo Butz

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees:  Sutton Foster (Anything Goes), Beth Leavel (Baby It’s You!), Patina Miller (Sister Act), Donna Murphy (The People in the Picture)

We’ve got another two-timer, Ladies and Gentlemen.  And I’l bet she sees a third win in her lifetime easy.

Hal Luftig produced the show that won Sutton her first.  This year he predicts, “Sutton Foster will win Best Actress in a Musical because she is quickly becoming Broadway Royalty!”

MY PREDICTION:  Sutton Foster

YOUR PREDICTION: Sutton Foster

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY

Nominees:  Mackenzie Crook (Jerusaleum), Billy Crudup (Arcadia), John Benjamin Hickey (The Normal Heart), Arian Moayed (Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo), Yul Vazquez (The MF with the Hat)

Another one for Normal.

Sue says, “These guys are all so good, but John really breaks your heart, and I think this will push him out in front.”

MY PREDICTION:  John Benjamin Hickey

YOUR PREDICTION: John Benjamin Hickey

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY

Nominees:  Ellen Barkin (The Normal Heart), Edie Falco (The House of Blue Leaves), Judith Light (Lombardi), Joanna Lumley (La Bête), Elizabeth Rodriguez (The MF with the Hat)

I want to say that Judith Light will pull an upset, because 1 – she was great and 2 – Lombardi was the surprise show of the year.  But at the end of the day, the voters will go with Barkin.

Sue and I agreed about the competition.  She said, “Give it to all of them!  Really!  I think it will go to Ellen Barkin in The Normal Heart, because it is her Broadway debut and she knocks it out of the park.

MY PREDICTION:  Ellen Barkin

YOUR PREDICTION:  Ellen Barkin

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees:  Colman Domingo (The Scottsboro Boys), Adam Godley (Anything Goes), John Larroquette (How To Succeed . . . ), Forrest McClendon (Scottsboro Boys), Rory O’Malley (The Book of Mormon)

It’s an anti-Hollywood year at the Tonys, but the TV star will take this one home.  Give it to John Boy.

Sue Frost agrees with me, saying, “He’s just such a teddy bear, and everyone loves him – in a category of really wonderful performers, I think he has the edge.”

MY PREDICTION:  John Larroquette

YOUR PREDICTION: Rory O’Malley (The Book of Mormon)

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees:  Laura Benanti (Women on the Verge . . .), Tammy Blanchard (How to Succeed . . . ), Victoria Clark (Sister Act), Nikki M. James (Book of Mormon), Patti Lupone (Women on the Verge . . .)

Remember that time Sutton won her second Tony?  She won’t be the only one that can double-fist Tony Awards after Sunday night.

Sue Frost thinks they’ll go with another former Tony-winner.  “This is another tough category, but everyone is so thrilled to see Vickie do comedy. I think she’s going to take it.”

MY PREDICTION:  Laura Benanti

YOUR PREDICTION:  Laura Benanti

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY

Nominees:  Marianne Elliot & Tom Morris (War Horse), Joel Grey & George C. Wolfe (Normal Heart), Anna D. Shapiro (The MF with the Hat), Daniel Sullivan (Merchant of Venice)

This is the year of the co-directors (see Musical category as well)!

MY PREDICTION:  Joel Grey & George C. Wolfe

YOUR PREDICTION:  Marianne Elliot & Tom Morris (War Horse)

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL

Nominees:  Rob Ashford (How to Succeed . . . ), Kathleen Marshall (Anything Goes), Casey Nicholaw & Trey Parker (Book of Mormon), Susan Stroman (Scottsboro Boys)

Two directors are better than one, and that’s why these boys will have “won” come Sunday night.

MY PREDICTION:  Casey Nicholaw & Trey Parker

YOUR PREDICTION:  Casey Nicholaw & Trey Parker

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY

Nominees: Nominees:  Rob Ashford (How to Succeed . . . ), Kathleen Marshall (Anything Goes), Casey Nicholaw (Book of Mormon), Susan Stroman (Scottsboro Boys)

Ahhh, can you say the year of the director-choreographer?  In case you didn’t notice, the same people were nominated in both categories (except for Trey Parker – sorry Trey).

Part of me wants to say that voters will want to give something to Susan and Scottsboro, but it’s not like her mantle is empty.  And if I’m right about H2S taking Best Revival, then the voters will want to credit Kathleen for her toe-tappin’ work and might want to give Mormon a break from running up and down those stairs so many times.  So . . .

MY PREDICTION:  Kathleen Marshall (Anything Goes)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Kathleen Marshall (Anything Goes)

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS

Nominees:  Doug Besterman (How to Succeed . . . ), Larry Hochman (Scottsboro Boys), Larry Hochman and Stephen Oremus (Book of Mormon), Marc Shaiman & Larry Blank (Catch Me If You Can)

MY PREDICTION:  Larry Hochman & Stephen Oremus (Book of Mormon)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Larry Hochman & Stephen Oremus (Book of Mormon)

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY

Nominees:  Todd Rosenthal (The MF with the Hat), Rae Smith (War Horse), Ultz (Jersualem), Mark Wendland (Merchant of Venice)

MY PREDICTION:  Rae Smith (War Horse)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Rae Smith (War Horse)

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Nominees:  Beowulf Boritt (Scottsboro Boys), Derek McLane (Anything Goes), Scott Pask (The Book of Mormon), Donyale Werle (Bloody, Bloody, Andrew Jackson)

This was not the year of the monster spectacle musical (thanks to the delay of Spider-Man).  While BBAJ had a terrific set, I’m not sure enough people saw it.

MY PREDICTION:  Scott Pask (The Book of Mormon)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Scott Pask (The Book of Mormon)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY

Nominees:  Jess Goldstein (Merchant of Venice), Desmond Heeley (Importance of . . . ), Mark Thompson (La Bete), Catherine Zuber (Born Yesterday)

MY PREDICTION:  Desmond Heeley (Importance of . . . )

YOUR PREDICTION:  Desmond Heeley (Importance of . . . )

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Nominees:  Tim Chappel & Lizzy Gardiner (Priscilla . . . ), Martin Pakledinaz (Anything Goes), Ann Roth (Book of Mormon), Catherine Zuber (How to Succeed . . .)

I mean, come on.  A dancing cupcake?  Not to mention figuring out how to get those ping pong balls to . . . you know . . .

MY PREDICTION:  Tim Chappel & Lizzy Gardiner (Priscilla . . . )

YOUR PREDICTION:  Tim Chappel & Lizzy Gardiner (Priscilla . . . )

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY

Nominees: Paule Constable (War Horse), David Lander (Bengal Tiger . . .),  Kenneth Posner (Merchant of Venice), Mimi Jordan Sherin (Jerusalem)

MY PREDICTION:  Paule Constable (War Horse)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Paule Constable (War Horse)

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Nominees:  Ken Billington (The Scottsboro Boys), Howell Binkley (How to Succeed . . . ), Peter Kaczorowski (Anything Goes), Brian MacDevitt (Book of Mormon)

MY PREDICTION:  Brian MacDevitt (Book of Mormon)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Brian MacDevitt (Book of Mormon)

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY

Nominees:  Acme Sound Partners & Cricket S. Myers (Bengal Tiger . . . ), Simon Baker (Brief Encounter), Ian Dickinson for Autograph (Jerusalem), Christopher Shutt (War Horse)

MY PREDICTION:  Christopher Shutt (War Horse)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Christopher Shutt (War Horse)

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Nominees:  Peter Hylenski (The Scottsboro Boys), Steve Canyon Kennedy (Catch Me If You Can), Brian Ronan (Anything Goes), Brian Ronan (Book of Mormon)

Because when voters don’t know what to do, they give a Tony to the big show of the year.

MY PREDICTION:  Brian Ronan (Book of Mormon)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Brian Ronan (Book of Mormon)

 

So there she blows!  My, yours, and other Producers’ 2011 Tony Award Predictions.

What do you think?  Agree?  Disagree?  Excited for Sunday?

Coming to our party?

 

(Got a comment?  I love ’em, so comment below!  Email subscribers, click here, then scroll down, to say what’s on your mind!)

– – – – –

FUN STUFF

– Come to our Tony Awards Party THIS SUNDAY!  Click here for more info and to get your ticket now!

– Enter to win 2 tickets to see the screening of Company!  Click here.

– My next Get Your Show Off The Ground seminar is coming up on June 25th.  Get info here.