Have we seen the last of the looooong running musical?

By Ken Davenport

I’ve written about long running shows by decade before, but I felt the subject deserved another look as a whole. So, as of this Sunday, take a look at Top 10 Longest Running Shows on Broadway:

Show		# of Perfs	Year Opened
1	The Phantom of the Opera*	8907	1988
2	Cats	7485	1982
3	Les Miserables	6680	1987
4	A Chorus Line	6137	1975
5	Oh! Calcutta!	5959	1974
6	Beauty and the Beast	5461	1994
7	Chicago*	5236	1996
8	Rent	5123	1996
9	The Lion King*	4821	1997
10	Miss Saigon	4092	1991

*still running

5 of these marathoners or 50% of the longest running musicals on Broadway are from the decade of glorious growth, the 90s.

30% are from the British Invasion of the 80s. And the remaining 20% are from the 70s.

Let’s take a little trip further down the long runner list, shall we? Here is a list of the 11th – 30th Longest Running Broadway Shows:

Show		# of Perfs	Year Opened
11	42nd Street	3486	1980
12	Grease	3388	1972
13	Fiddler on the Roof	3242	1964
14	Life with Father	3224	1939
15	Mamma Mia!*	3184	2001
16	Tobacco Road	3182	1933
17	Hello, Dolly!	2844	1964
18	My Fair Lady	2717	1956
19	Hairspray	2642	2002
20	The Producers	2502	2001
21	Avenue Q	2446	2003
22	Cabaret	2377	1998
23	Annie	2377	1977
24	Wicked*	2342	2003
25	Man of La Mancha	2328	1965
26	Abie’s Irish Rose	2327	1922
27	Oklahoma!	2212	1943
28	Smokey Joe’s Café	2036	1995
29	Pippin	1944	1972
30	South Pacific	1925	1949

There are only 2 musicals on this list that are still running and have a shot at cracking into the top 10: Mamma Mia needs another 2 years, and Wicked needs 4. I expect both to make it, which will give the 2000s (or the “aughts”) 2 spots in the top 10.

If you keep going down the list, there are 3 more musicals that are still running that could conceivably have a shot: Jersey Boys (#54), Mary Poppins (#89), and Billy Elliot (too far down to count). Jersey Boys has probably got a chance, thanks to its low overhead, but I doubt the other two will go the distance.

If those falsetto-singing boys from Jersey make the cut (and they still need another (gulp) 7 years), then that will give the aughts a 30% representation in the top 10 longest running shows. Not so bad.

But if they don’t, and if the Mamma Mia movie madness wears off and that show doesn’t make the cut, we could be looking at only one show from this decade to be in the Top 10.

And is it just me, or does it seem like there isn’t anything on the horizon that has twenty year staying power?

Then again, the day before Rent opened on Broadway, I bet no one thought it would run for 5123 performances.

How is Tony Voter turnout?

It’s analogy Friday!