If you run into someone you know on the street, the conversation usually starts like this . . .

“Hey NAME . . . how are you?”

Right?

Well, run into someone you know in the Broadway biz this time of year and the conversation goes like this . . .

“Hey NAME . . . who do you think is gonna win?”

It’s all everyone is talking about.  And rightly so.  The right Tony Awards mean press, recoupment, tours, subsidiary productions, and a place in theatrical history.

So who do I think is gonna win?

Every year, I make my predictions based on my gut, and what I’m hearing on the street.  I’ve posted them all below, with a few reasons why I think what I think.  In addition to my predictions, I’ve also posted yours!  How do I know who you think is gonna win?  Well, you remember that Tony Pool that we’re sponsoring?  I looked at who the majority of participants think is going to win each award and I’ve posted those below.  Make sense?

In previous years, we’ve also had a little fun and hired a psychic to look into the future to see who was gonna take home a trophy.  But this year, we’re trying something a little bit nuttier.  To remind us that you never know what will happen in this crazy biz, I let my wife’s dog make her predictions.  🙂  We put each nominee on a piece of paper, and whichever one Koda (our part Fox Terrier/part Dachshund snuggle muffin) sniffed at or pawed at, we marked as her choice.

So are you ready to see who I think/you think/Koda thinks is gonna win?

May I have the envelope please!

Disclaimer:  Just remember, this is who I think will win, not who I think should win.  Big difference.  You gotta check your emotion at the door for this game.

 

BEST PLAY

Nominees: The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, Disgraced, Hand to God, Wolf Hall Parts One & Two

MY PREDICTION:  The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

YOUR PREDICTION: The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

KODA’S PREDICTION: Wolf Hall Parts One & Two

As much as Hand to God is loved by everyone who sees it (and many people think it’s the superior play), Curious Incident has the edge thanks to its incredible production values, terrific performances and the fact that it recouped in like no time.  Although a few people I talked to are irritated that another British import may walk away a winner, I don’t think that backlash is enough to dethrone it, as all of you agree.

You would think Koda would have supported a play about one of her own murdered species, but no.  She went with the wolves.

 

BEST MUSICAL

Nominees: An American in Paris, Fun Home, Something Rotten!, The Visit

MY PREDICTION:  An American in Paris

YOUR PREDICTION: An American in Paris

KODA’S PREDICTION: Fun Home

This is the big one.  And every year during Tony time there is an increase in the chatter about who the winner will be during the last few days leading up to the ceremony, and this week was no different.  When the nominations came out, An American in Paris was thought to be the sure thing to win the award.  It seemed to have everything: reviews, high grosses, stunning theatricality, touring potential, etc.  But in the last 72 hours, Fun Home has pulled up closer to the front of the pack, with people quoting the original score, the daring originality, and its growing box office in its very small theater.  When the votes are counted, however, I think the “bigness” of An American in Paris will beat it out.

Koda obviously hears on a different wavelength, and she’s hearing a frequency that says Fun Home is gonna take it . . . or maybe she’s a lesbian dog whose father committed suicide.  I don’t know.  She won’t talk about her family history with anyone.

Unfortunately, it looks like my show, The Visit, won’t be the winner, although I think if we audited the votes, we’d be surprised how many it gets.  But like another Kander/Ebb musical, Chicago, expect The Visit to get the incredible adulation it deserves years from now.  Once again, Kander/Ebb/McNally have pushed the form so much, that it doesn’t look like today’s audiences are ready for it.  But musical theater is better off for The Visit for sure.

 

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: Craig Lucas (An American in Paris), Lisa Kron (Fun Home), Karey Kirkpatrick and John O’Farrell (Something Rotten!),  Terrence McNally (The Visit)

MY PREDICTION:  Lisa Kron (Fun Home)

YOUR PREDICTION: Lisa Kron (Fun Home)

KODA’S PREDICTION: Karey Kirkpatrick and John O’Farrell (Something Rotten!)

This is where Tony Voters start to get a little strategic in how they vote.  See, it was a tough call between Fun Home and An American in Paris for the big prize.  And the majority of them went with An American in Paris.  So I’m predicting they’ll give the arts awards, starting with Best Book, to Fun Home to make up for the slight in the Best Musical category.  It also just so happens that the book is more than worthy of the honor.

Koda likes to laugh, so she went with Something Rotten!  Or maybe the Something Rotten! nominee slip smelled like bacon.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Nominees: Jeanine Tesori and Lisa Kron (Fun Home), Sting (The Last Ship), Wayne Kirkpatrick and Karey Kirkpatrick (Something Rotten!), John Kander and Fred Ebb (The Visit)

MY PREDICTION:  Jeanine Tesori and Lisa Kron (Fun Home)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Jeanine Tesori and Lisa Kron (Fun Home)

KODA’S PREDICTION:  Sting (The Last Ship)

Same result here.  Some people think a Best Score and Best Book musical add up to the equivalent of Best Musical.  They don’t, but the voters will award this prize to Fun Home to help equal the playing field between it and Paris.  And also, Jeanine Tesori has written another boundary pushing score with Fun Home, like she did for Caroline, or Change. (Which didn’t win.  In fact, this is Jeanine’s fifth nomination, with no victories.  The voters will reward her finally.)

Koda is a big Police fan, so she went with Sting.

 

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY

Nominees: The Elephant Man, Skylight, This Is Our Youth, You Can’t Take It With You

MY PREDICTION:  Skylight

YOUR PREDICTION: The Elephant Man

KODA’S PREDICTION: Skylight

Koda and I see this one the same.  While The Elephant Man comes in a close second here, thanks to the performance of Bradley Cooper and the direction of Scott Ellis, every Tony Voter I know was overwhelmed by Skylight.  One agent I talked to said, “Best thing I’ve seen on a NY stage in years.”  Why the reaction?  I don’t think anyone was expecting it to be as affecting as it was.  People knew what they were going to see with Elephant and the others.  But Skylight surprised them.  The play itself surprised them.  The performances surprised them.  And that will win votes.

 

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: The King and I, On the Town, On the Twentieth Century

MY PREDICTION:  The King and I

YOUR PREDICTION: The King and I

KODA’S PREDICTION: On the Town

Lincoln Center might as well become The Rodgers & Hammerstein Center, because no one knows how to do a big beautiful revival of these classic shows better than they do (and honestly no commercial producer could do them in the same way).  Expect this winner to reignite the argument of “Should non-profits, who don’t have the same economic restrictions as commercial producers, be eligible for the same awards?”  But obviously Tony Voters don’t give a crap, because they’re going to give The Rodgers & Hammerstein . . . er . . . I mean Lincoln Center yet another trophy.

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY

Nominees: Steven Boyer (Hand to God), Bradley Cooper (The Elephant Man), Ben Miles (Wolf Hall Parts One & Two), Bill Nighy (Skylight), Alex Sharp (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)

MY PREDICTION:  Alex Sharp (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)

YOUR PREDICTION: Alex Sharp (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)

KODA’S PREDICTION: Ben Miles (Wolf Hall Parts One & Two)

Here’s where things get tough.  Alex Sharp has been the front runner since Curious Incident opened.  But that show opened back in the fall, and the performances of Bill Nighy and Steven Boyer are not only brilliant, but also fresh in the voters’ minds.  But I think Alex’s youth and the fact that he’s playing the role of a young man with the very topical challenge of living with autism will put him over the top.

Maybe Koda is part wolf?

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY

Nominees: Geneva Carr (Hand to God), Helen Mirren (The Audience), Elisabeth Moss (The Heidi Chronicles), Carey Mulligan (Skylight), Ruth Wilson (Constellations)

MY PREDICTION:  Helen Mirren (The Audience)

YOUR PREDICTION: Helen Mirren (The Audience)

KODA’S PREDICTION: Helen Mirren (The Audience)

She’s playing the Queen for goodness’ sake!  Immediately, that puts Helen Mirren as the favorite (important roles seem more important to voters).  Add that to the fact that she has played the Queen before (and won an Oscar for it), and you understand why all of us think she’s getting another kudos on Sunday night.  Make room on the mantle, Dame Helen!

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees: Michael Cerveris (Fun Home), Robert Fairchild (An American in Paris), Brian d’Arcy James (Something Rotten!), Ken Watanabe (The King and I), Tony Yazbeck (On the Town)

MY PREDICTION:  Michael Cerveris (Fun Home)

YOUR PREDICTION: Michael Cerveris (Fun Home)

KODA’S PREDICTION: Robert Fairchild (An American in Paris)

Everyone, including Koda, had been expecting Robert Fairchild to dance away with the award up until the past few days.  But all of a sudden, according to my sources, Michael Cerveris has come charging back with his ferocious performance in Fun Home (personally when I saw it, I didn’t even realize it was Michael until halfway through the dang show, that’s how much he transformed himself).

So in what I think will be the first mini-surprise of the night, Michael Cerveris will take home his second Tony.

Koda is still holding out for Robert.  I respect her stalwartness.

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees: Kristin Chenoweth (On the Twentieth Century), Leanne Cope (An American in Paris), Beth Malone (Fun Home), Kelli O’Hara (The King and I), Chita Rivera (The Visit)

MY PREDICTION:  Chita Rivera (The Visit)

YOUR PREDICTION: Kristin Chenoweth (On the Twentieth Century)

KODA’S PREDICTION:  Leanne Cope (An American in Paris)

This is one of the toughest categories to predict, but not for me.  In addition to Chita giving an incredible performance at the age of 82 (!), and since voters will not have given The Visit any love so far (and they’ll want to – because they did love it), expect them to mark the ballot for Ms. Rivera.  And expect a speech like none other.  It will have been a tough decision for voters, for sure, with Kelli having been nominated six times (and deserving some Tony love), and with Chenoweth being so beloved by our industry, but I’m going with Chita all the way.

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY

Nominees:Matthew Beard (Skylight), K. Todd Freeman (Airline Highway), Richard McCabe (The Audience), Alessandro Nivola (The Elephant Man), Nathaniel Parker (Wolf Hall Parts One & Two), Micah Stock (It’s Only a Play)

MY PREDICTION:  Micah Stock (It’s Only a Play)

YOUR PREDICTION: Micah Stock (It’s Only a Play)

KODA’S PREDICTION: K. Todd Freeman (Airline Highway)

Every year has a great newbie story and this year’s is Micah Stock.  Voters will reward Micah’s hysterical “gravity defying” performance . . . especially when they remember this Broadway rookie was on a stage with Nathan Lane, Matthew Broderick, Stockard Channing, F. Murray Abraham, Megan Mullaly and Rupert Grint.  And he not only held his own, but he had the audiences buckled over in laughter at my It’s Only a Play.  Add that to the fact that the show was one of this year’s biggest hits (thank you, theater gods!), and the voters will want to give it a nod, especially when it wasn’t nominated in any other categories (damn you, theater gods!).

I’m so excited about this one.

And Koda, I’m officially mad at you.  I’m not letting you sniff any other dogs’ butts when I walk you later.

 

BEST PERFORAMNCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY

Nominees: Annaleigh Ashford (You Can’t Take It with You), Patricia Clarkson (The Elephant Man), Lydia Leonard (Wolf Hall Parts One & Two), Sarah Stiles (Hand to God), Julie White (Airline Highway)

MY PREDICTION:  Annaleigh Ashford (You Can’t Take It with You)

YOUR PREDICTION: Annaleigh Ashford (You Can’t Take It with You)

KODA’S PREDICTION: Annaleigh Ashford (You Can’t Take It with You)

I predicted Annaleigh was going to win for Kinky Boots a couple of years ago, and she didn’t.  And now here she comes again.  Sometimes I think voters skip over first time nominees because they think, “Ok, that was a great performance, but you’ve got to prove that you can do more if you want my vote.”  Well, Annaleigh proved it to us all.  And don’t think that the timing of last week’s announcement of her playing Sylvia on Broadway next season was a coincidence.  No, the folks behind her are showing the industry that this girl is a player.  And the truth is, she is, and on Sunday she’ll be a Tony winner, as we all agree.

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees: Christian Borle (Something Rotten!), Andy Karl (On the Twentieth Century), Brad Oscar (Something Rotten!), Brandon Uranowitz (An American in Paris), Max von Essen (An American in Paris)

MY PREDICTION:  Christian Borle (Something Rotten!)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Christian Borle (Something Rotten!)

KODA’S PREDICTION: Brad Oscar (Something Rotten!)

While I’d love to see my former Altar Boyz cast member Andy Karl take this one, give it to the super funny Christian Borle for not only his performance, but for his performance on Smash as well as his the live telecasts of The Sound of Music and Peter Pan.  And at this point, Something Rotten! will not have grabbed a Tony yet, and it deserves some love.  (Side note – expect Rotten to blow the audience in the theater and at home away with their number “A Musical!”)

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Nominees: Victoria Clark (Gigi), Judy Kuhn (Fun Home), Sydney Lucas (Fun Home), Ruthie Ann Miles (The King and I), Emily Skeggs (Fun Home)

MY PREDICTION:  Sydney Lucas (Fun Home)

YOUR PREDICTION: Judy Kuhn (Fun Home),

KODA’S PREDICTION:  Victoria Clark (Gigi)

This category reminds me of the Tony Awards in 1991, when young Daisy Eagan beat out her fellow cast member of The Secret Garden, the incomparable industry vet, Alison Fraser.

Expect a redux of that year, because the eleven year old Sydney Lucas will best cast member Judy Kuhn (and Emily Skeggs) and take home the trophy (if she can carry it).  Voters, like audience members, like kids in shows, especially when they are as heartbreaking as Syndey (I’ll never forget her singing that “Keys” song).

 

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY

Nominees: Stephen Daldry (Skylight), Marianne Elliott (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time), Scott Ellis (You Can’t Take It with You), Jeremy Herrin (Wolf Hall Parts One & Two), Moritz von Stuelpnagel (Hand to God)

MY PREDICTION:  Marianne Elliott (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)

YOUR PREDICTION: Marianne Elliott (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)

KODA’S PREDICTION: Jeremy Herrin (Wolf Hall Parts One & Two)

Many people think Curious Incident is more complex than a lot of musicals, with its intricate design and fast-moving pace.  Keeping that all together ain’t no easy feat and Marianne Elliott will win, thanks in part to the degree of difficulty of her task.

Now the question is . . . who will offer her the chance to direct a Broadway musical first?

 

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: Sam Gold (Fun Home), Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten!), John Rando (On the Town), Bartlett Sher (The King and I), Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris)

MY PREDICTION:  Sam Gold (Fun Home)

YOUR PREDICTION: Sam Gold (Fun Home)

KODA’S PREDICTION: John Rando (On the Town)

Remember when I said that the arts awards would go to Fun Home?  Best Director is part of that.  Fun Home ain’t no easy piece to get an audience to digest.  And Sam did it.  Twice.  Yep, he took what worked so well down at The Public and then reimagined it and put it in the round for Broadway!  I know some directors who would refuse a theater because it had one less seat or because the curtains were red, never mind if it had an entirely different configuration.  But Sam embraced the change, and the Tony Voters will embrace him.

Wheeldon has a definite shot, because An American in Paris is such an “auteur” piece . . . but, well, see below.

John Rando is directing Gettin’ The Band Together for me, and at a meeting I think he slipped Koda a piece of pizza, hence her support here.  He deserves it, because he took a show that not a lot of people even like and made it super exciting, but unfortunately he will come up short.

 

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY

Nominees: Joshua Bergasse (On the Town), Christopher Gattelli (The King and I), Scott Graham & Steven Hoggett for Frantic Assembly (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time), Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten!), Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris)

MY PREDICTION:  Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris)

KODA’S PREDICTION: Scott Graham & Steven Hoggett for Frantic Assembly (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)

I literally would bet everything I have . . . including Koda . . . on Chris Wheeldon winning this award.  That’s how much of a lock it is.

Koda finally went to the dogs on this one.

 

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS

Nominees: Christopher Austin, Don Sebesky, Bill Elliott (An American in Paris), John Clancy (Fun Home), Larry Hochman (Something Rotten!), Rob Mathes (The Last Ship)

MY PREDICTION:  Christopher Austin, Don Sebesky, Bill Elliott (An American in Paris)

YOUR PREDICTION:  Christopher Austin, Don Sebesky, Bill Elliott (An American in Paris)

KODA’S PREDICTION:  Larry Hochman (Something Rotten!)

A big orchestra and Gershwin tunes will help put An American in Paris over the top in the orchestration category for sure.

Koda went with what I think is the runner up.

 

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY

Nominees: Bunny Christie and Finn Ross (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time), Bob Crowley (Skylight), Christopher Oram (Wolf Hall Parts One & Two), David Rockwell (You Can’t Take It with You)

MY PREDICTION:  Bunny Christie and Finn Ross (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)

YOUR PREDICTION: Bunny Christie and Finn Ross (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)

KODA’S PREDICTION: Bob Crowley (Skylight)

Curious Incident has a set most musicals would be jealous of, and it was one of the easiest boxes for me to check when I voted, and most voters will do the same.

 

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: Bob Crowley and 59 Productions (An American in Paris), David Rockwell (On the Twentieth Century), Michael Yeargan (The King and I), David Zinn (Fun Home)

MY PREDICTION:  Bob Crowley and 59 Productions (An American in Paris)

YOUR PREDICTION: Bob Crowley and 59 Productions (An American in Paris)

KODA’S PREDICTION: David Rockwell (On the Twentieth Century)

I expected the dance in An American in Paris to be incredible.  I didn’t expect the designs to be so incredible.  The Palace is one of the bigger theaters on Broadway and that massive stage is hard to fill.  But Crowley and 59 did so with beauty and grace and they’ll get an award for it.  (And when something wins the big prize, like Paris will, a lot of these design awards get thrown the big winner’s way in what I call “Tony by Association.”  It’s just an easy choice for voters if they aren’t as educated in the elements or don’t remember them.  That said, in this case, it’s deserved.)

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY

Nominees: Bob Crowley (The Audience), Jane Greenwood (You Can’t Take It with You), Christopher Oram (Wolf Hall Parts One & Two), David Zinn (Airline Highway)

MY PREDICTION:  Christopher Oram (Wolf Hall Parts One & Two)

YOUR PREDICTION: Christopher Oram (Wolf Hall Parts One & Two)

KODA’S PREDICTION: Jane Greenwood (You Can’t Take It with You)

Give it to the costume drama period piece.  And for the record, I do think there’s a formula . . . the heavier the costumes, and the more of them, the more likely the designs will win a Tony.

Koda is getting bored now and I think she is starting to think the nominee slips are wee-wee pads.

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: Gregg Barnes (Something Rotten!), Bob Crowley (An American in Paris), William Ivey Long (On the Twentieth Century), Catherine Zuber (The King and I)

MY PREDICTION:  Catherine Zuber (The King and I)

YOUR PREDICTION: Catherine Zuber (The King and I)

KODA’S PREDICTION: Gregg Barnes (Something Rotten!)

See above.  Class costume drama wins over the comedy every time.

 

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY

Nominees: Paule Constable (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time), Paule Constable and David Plater (Wolf Hall Parts One & Two), Natasha Katz (Skylight), Japhy Weideman (Airline Highway)

MY PREDICTION:  Paule Constable (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)

YOUR PREDICTION: Paule Constable (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)

KODA’S PREDICTION: Paule Constable and David Plater (Wolf Hall Parts One & Two)

Sorry Koda, this one is a lock, lock, lock-arooni.

 

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

Nominees: Donald Holder (The King and I), Natasha Katz (An American in Paris), Ben Stanton (Fun Home), Japhy Weideman (The Visit)

MY PREDICTION:  Natasha Katz (An American in Paris)

YOUR PREDICTION: Natasha Katz (An American in Paris)

KODA’S PREDICTION: Natasha Katz (An American in Paris)

Great scenery only looks good if there is great lighting (which is often why the lighting and scenic awards go together).  Give this one to the brilliant Natasha Katz, as we all agree.

 

And there you have it!  All of our predictions for this year’s Tony Awards!

What do you think of my choices?  Yours?  Think there is room for any upsets?  Comment below and then tune in next week for my wrap up!

 

(Got a comment? I love ‘em, so comment below! Email Subscribers, click here then scroll down to say what’s on your mind!)