Last year, the buzz around Shubert Alley was in the sheer volume of new musicals on the boards.

And for once, the buzz wasn’t exaggerated.  (We theatermakers are dramatic by nature.  The sky is always falling while we’re seeing triple rainbows.)

In the 2023-24 season, there were 16 brand spankin’ NEW musicals.  

That’s a lot.  (Especially when only five can get a Best Musical Tony nomination.  And especially when nominations and wins are such a key component of life on Broadway and life AFTER Broadway.)

When the season was over, everyone said, “Well, that will never happen again!”

Enter this season.

Right now . . . as of October 19th, when I’m composing this . . . I count twelve announced new musicals (or ready to announce new musicals).  TWELVE.  And it’s only October.  

So much for a fluke.  This is now a TREND.

To put that into perspective, I had my new Associate Producer do some data mining. 

We looked at the ten years prior to the pandemic.  

The average number of new musicals on Broadway each year was 9.6.  

So if we stuck at the 12 for this year, plus the 16 from last year, that means in the two most recent years, we’re averaging 14 new musicals a year.  That’s a whopping 46% more than the average of the previous 10 years.  

What does all this mean?  Is this triple rainbow time?  Or is the sky falling?

Well, it’s a bit of both.

For fans of new musicals has there ever been a better time?  There has never been so much new product available for people who like singing and dancing with their drama.

But the challenge for the industry is . . . the grosses are still 18% down, while expenses are up, from 10-30%!

More product, fewer customers.  It’s like if people stopped driving and the auto companies said, “Let’s make more cars.”

Don’t get me wrong . . . I AM one of those fans of new musicals, so I’m in heaven with all this product.  But the challenge these musicals have in competing for a smaller audience (and a changing one) concerns me.  Will shows that should stand out get that opportunity?  Will new voices be heard?  Will the only thing that survives be big branded IP?  

Time will tell . . . and hopefully the audience will come ROARING back to its pre-covid levels and beyond (and hopefully Broadway inflation will flatline at least).  

So why is this happening?  What’s causing this now-official-trend?

Is it:

• A still unclogging pandemic pipeline?
• The tax credit encouraging producers to produce?
• Shows closing faster making more theaters available?
• More limited runs?
• All the above and more.

Will it continue?  Can it continue?  

Of course it can – provided there are investors willing to invest, despite greater risks, and in decreased margins.  (Another reason why the extension of the Broadway tax credit is essential – because we’re not out of the pandemic woods yet.)

Enjoy this new musical-infused season.  Go see something you wouldn’t usually see. Because all these musicals need your support.  

Because what I’d love to see is not only more new musicals, but more recouping new musicals.  If we could accomplish that?  The art form would explode even more than it already is.  

(Stay tuned – because this volume of new musicals is screaming for a few changes in the industry – I’m going to lobby for one in a couple of weeks).

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