Break out the thermometer and the Tylenol because I’ve got Tony Fever!

In just one week, all Hellzapoppin will break loose when the 2012 Tony Award nominees are announced live on NY1.

The prognosticators and theatrical handicappers have already started laying odds and placing bets on who is going home with Tony gold on June 12th.  But in order to be up for the trophy, you’ve got to get nominated.  And what many people forget is that a nomination (or lack thereof) can seal the fate for many a show that is holding onto their grosses, in hopes for the national exposure that a telecast Tony Award mention (or performance) will get them.

So who will be nominated?

I’m not going to even try to guess who the nominees will be in all the categories. It’d be too much like pin the tail on the Tony.  Instead, I’m going to focus on two of the three awards that actually have an effect on the bottom line, Best Musical and Best Play (the other gross-affecting award is Best Revival of a Musical).

Here are my predictions . . . and remember, this is not who I think should be nominated, but who I think will be nominated:

Best Play

– Jersualeum
– Good People
– War Horse 

And . . .

The fourth spot is always the tough one. I’d bet a pretty penny that the above three are locks. But what about the fourth spot?  Possible contenders in my opinion are Motherf**ker with the Hat, Pitmen Painters and maybe even Brief Encounter.  But when it comes down to it, the Nominators will forget those fall shows and nominate . . .

 – Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo.

Best Musical

– Book of Mormon
– The Scottsboro Boys

Those are the two locks in the musical category, and then the field is wiiiiide open. You’ve got Catch Me If You Can, Priscilla, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson, Baby It’s You, Sister Act, Wonderland, People In The Picture, Elf, Women on the Verge . . . who said the new musical is dead?

But there are only two spots left!  Who will be “Legally Blonded” this year? (Explanation:  The Nominators tend to slap one commercial enterprise every year by snubbing them for the big award . . . Legally Blonde, Addams Family, Aida.  I was shocked at the Blonde snub, so I turned it into a verb.)

And the third spot goes to . . . .

– Catch Me If You Can.

A classic, old-fasioned musical with a creative team like Catch Me’s will not be overlooked.

 The final and fourth slot?

– Bloody, Bloody, Andrew Jackson

Unfortunately, I think Priscilla, which is next in line for a nod, may be the Blonde of the year.

Now, I may be wrong about a bunch of these predictions.

But one thing I know for certain . . . if Spider-Man HAD opened this year, there is no way it would be have been nominated amongst this field.

Hmmmm . . . wait a minute . . . could that have been the reason for the final delay?  Did the Producers of Spider-Man push it to next season in the hope that a bounty of new musicals this season could mean a lack in the next?  Are they hoping that they could actually compete?  Could be, could be . . .

What do you think of my predictions?  Agree?  Disagree?  Who do you think will be nominated in this year’s Tony Awards?

(Got a comment?  I love ’em, so comment below!  Email subscribers, click here, then scroll down, to say what’s on your mind!)

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